Existing-home sales rose 1.9% in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The median existing-home sales price rose 13.9% year-over-year to $353,900. From one year ago, the inventory of unsold homes decreased 13.3% to 1.1 million – equivalent to 2.1 months of the monthly sales pace.
“Determined buyers were able to land housing before mortgage rates rise further in the coming months,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Locking in a constant and firm mortgage payment motivated many consumers who grew weary of escalating rents over the last year. “Mortgage rates are projected to jump in 2022, however, I don’t expect the imminent increase to be overly dramatic.”
Yun forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average at 3.7% by year-end of 2022. Total housing inventory at the end of November amounted to 1.11 million units, down 9.8% from October and down 13.3% from one year ago (1.28 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a decline from both the prior month and from one year ago.
The prices increased in each region, with the highest pace of appreciation in the South region. This marks 117 straight months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
“Supply-chain disruptions for building new homes and labor shortages have hindered bringing more inventory to the market,” said Yun. “Therefore, housing prices continue to march higher due to the near record-low supply levels.” Yun noted that inflation and the pace of price appreciation is expected to subside next year.
Last week, NAR held its third annual Real Estate Forecast Summit, featuring economists and housing experts whose consensus found inflation would likely ease in 2022 at a 4% rate, while home prices are expected to rise at a moderate pace of 5.7%. Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days in November, equal to October and down from 21 days in November 2020.
Eighty-three percent of homes sold in November 2021 were on the market for less than a month. First-time buyers were responsible for 26% of sales in November, down from 29% in October and from 32% in November 2020. NAR’s 2021 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released last month – reported that the annual share of first-time buyers was 34%. Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in November, down from 17% in October and up from 14% in November 2020. All-cash sales accounted for 24% of transactions in November, equal to October’s percentage, and up from 20% from November 2020.
Single-family home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million in November, up 1.6% from 5.66 million in October and down 2.2% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $362,600 in November, up 14.9% from November 2020. Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 710,000 units in November, up 4.4% from 680,000 in October and equal to one year ago. The median existing condo price was $283,200 in November, an annual increase of 4.4%.
“As the year comes to an end, NAR is very proud of the work we’ve done to protect homeownership and the valuable investments made in our communities and infrastructure,” said NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a Realtor® from Plano, Texas, and a broker associate at Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate in Dallas. “We recognize that further efforts are needed and will continue to promote Fair Housing, work to increase the housing shortage, and fight to dismantle discriminatory housing laws and outdated policies.”
